Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Verification of probabilistic weather forecasts remains a crucial aspect of numerical weather prediction, as new AI-based models become more widely used alongside the more traditional physics-based ensemble forecasting systems that continue to be developed and improved. We present a first-of-its-kind idealized probabilistic dataset composed of one-dimensional cases aimed at analyzing the behavior and properties of verification methods for probabilistic forecasts and comparing their behavior. It covers a wide range of probabilistic cases, such as constant, localized events, gradients, fronts, noisy, bimodal, and limiting cases. Moreover, the code associated with the dataset provides great flexibility for customizing the experiments it covers. The dataset represents the first building block of the more extensive comparison dataset of the Bridging The Gap project, which aims to facilitate the development and comparison of spatial verification methods for probabilistic forecasts.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Skok, Gregor, Pic, Romain
Institutions: University of Ljubljana, ETH Zurich, Seminar for Statistics
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Award: G1607179342
OpenAlex ID: W7214088632