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Prosper or beggar thy neighbor? non-farm employment effects and spatial spillovers of China's National Digital Village Pilot Program

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Introduction Counties are a key spatial unit linking cities and villages in China's rural transformation, yet many still lack the industrial base, market scale, and non-farm job opportunities needed to absorb rural labor. This study examines whether China's National Digital Village Pilot Program expands rural non-farm employment and whether its effects extend beyond pilot counties. Methods Using a panel of 1,450 Chinese counties and 24,111 county-year observations from 2007 to 2024, this study exploits the staggered implementation of the 2020 and 2024 pilot cohorts as a quasi-natural experiment. The policy effect is estimated using a multi-period difference-in-differences model and cross-validated with stacked DID and the Callaway-Sant'Anna estimator. Robustness is further assessed through propensity score matching, inverse probability weighting, entropy balancing, placebo tests, and alternative samples and specifications. Transmission channels, heterogeneity, and spatial effects are also examined. Results The National Digital Village Pilot Program increased rural non-farm employment in pilot counties by approximately 25% relative to non-pilot counties, and the result remains robust across alternative identification and estimation strategies. The two-step transmission-channel analysis provides evidence consistent with two potential channels: enhanced county-level innovation and improved mobile network access capability. The policy effect is significantly stronger in central-region counties than in western counties and stronger in smaller counties than in larger ones, with weaker evidence of a larger effect in counties with lower human capital. Spatial analysis shows a positive direct effect on pilot counties but a negative spillover effect on neighboring counties. Discussion The findings indicate that digital village development can strengthen local non-farm employment absorption, but part of the local gain may reflect a spatial reallocation of economic activity rather than net regional job creation. Effective implementation therefore requires not only county-level digital development but also cross-county resource coordination and regional policy integration.

Source: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2026.1950504

Authors: Wei Yang, Lijun Wang, Yizhuo Ma

Institutions: Xichang University, Chongqing University of Science and Technology

Language: English

Topic: Digitalization and Economic Development in Agriculture

Subfield: Strategy and Management

Field: Business, Management and Accounting

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Decent work and economic growth, No poverty, Reduced inequalities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,353