Artificial Intelligence for Climate Adaptation Decision Support in Data-Poor Developing Regions
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Climate adaptation is a sequence of decisions taken under uncertainty, and the regions where climate risk is rising fastest are those with the least information to guide them. Only about 10 per cent of deaths are registered in the WHO African Region; nearly 90 per cent of required surface weather observations are missing across least developed countries and small island states; and only 40 per cent of African countries have multi-hazard early warning systems. This report examines whether artificial intelligence — machine learning, remote sensing and predictive analytics — can close these information gaps and improve adaptation decisions in data-poor developing regions. The report organises the problem as a decision chain with three information gaps — observation, prediction and decision — followed by an action gap that AI cannot close. It finds that AI has advanced fastest on prediction: AI weather models became operational at ECMWF in 2025, AI flood forecasts now cover 100 countries and about 700 million people, satellite nowcasts reach a continent with little radar, and AI monsoon-onset forecasts reached 38 million Indian farmers in 2025. On observation, satellite machine learning explains around 70 per cent of the variation in village wealth but only up to about half of the variation in changes over time. On decision, evidence from Togo, Bangladesh and Kenya shows that AI-assisted targeting, forecast-based triggers and satellite index insurance can deliver assistance faster and better, within clear limits. The report's central argument is the ground-truth paradox: AI stretches scarce observations further, but every AI product must be trained and verified against ground truth, so reliance on AI raises the value of each remaining station, survey and label. The 2025 interruption of FEWS NET and termination of the DHS Program show how fragile that foundation is. Because the value of information is the product of skill, lead time, reach, trust and the means to act, the highest returns usually lie not in more skilful models but in dissemination, institutions and prearranged finance. The report sets out a risk register, a six-principle policy framework, actions by actor and a roadmap to 2030.
Authors: H Heuristics, Hunter Hughes
Language: English
Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7214097088