The winner's curse in hardware VQE: drift-differenced remeasurement of finite-shot selection bias
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Finite-shot optimization can make noisy variational quantum eigensolver energies look artificially accurate. We studied six hardware-tractable molecular active spaces on two IBM Heron r3 processors. Seven optimizer-selected values fell below the exact active-space eigenvalue by up to 17.36 mHa. The cell-balanced fraction of the source-observed best-final advantage not retained on later fixed-parameter measurement was 0.989 (approximate 95% session-level interval [0.906, 1.072]); alternative aggregations span 0.892-0.989. Thus little of the selected advantage remained on average. Measurements occurred 5.6-38.4 days later, so parameter-dependent drift remains a competing explanation. Best-observed hardware VQE values require prompt independent confirmation before supporting accuracy claims.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Larrucea, Julen
Language: English
Subfield: Artificial Intelligence
Field: Computer Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7214167299