Dynamic evolution of alpine grassland social-ecological resilience and its characteristics based on the “components-attributes-capacities” framework: a case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of resilience of the alpine grassland social-ecological system is critical for safeguarding ecological security and promoting sustainable development in pastoral regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on the “Components-Attributes-Capacities” analytical framework, this study investigates 21 prefecture-level administrative units across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and integrates the catastrophe progression method, three-dimensional kernel density estimation, Markov chains, self-organizing feature mapping (SOFM) networks and XGBoost-SHAP analysis to systematically characterize the spatiotemporal patterns, hierarchical transitions, and capacity combination modes of regional resilience from 2000 to 2024. The results indicate that: (1) Overall resilience exhibited a steady upward trend, while substantial differentiation emerged among the three subsystems. Economic resilience demonstrated a stepwise increase with pronounced north-south disparities; ecological resilience transitioned from a bimodal to a unimodal distribution, accompanied by enhanced diffusion effects, although moderate-resilience lock-in persisted in peripheral areas; and social resilience showed a balanced and inclusive improvement trajectory.(2) Resilience transitions exhibited strong club convergence characteristics. The self-maintenance probability of high-resilience states reached 93.3%-96.5%, whereas low-resilience regions primarily progressed through adjacent-level transitions, making leapfrog improvements difficult to achieve.(3) Five distinct resilience capacity combination patterns were identified, among which the socioeconomic synergistic type and adaptation-oriented type accounted for more than 50% of the total.(4) A strong synergistic relationship was observed between recovery capacity and adaptive capacity; however, significant resource competition and structural conflicts existed between social resistance capacity and ecological and economic resistance capacities. This study proposes a differentiated resilience governance framework characterized by targeted interventions, incremental breakthroughs, and synergistic management, providing theoretical insights and empirical evidence for enhancing resilience and ensuring ecological security in alpine pastoral regions.
Authors: Tianlong Guo, Ling Zhao, Jinmeng Yang, Yin Tang
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,077
OpenAlex ID: W7214182257