Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: While evolutionary rescue is now a well-established term, there are subtleties in precisely defining it and conceptual complications in quantifying its probability. In this Perspective, we pay special attention to three issues: 1) How do we know that a population would go extinct in the absence of evolution? 2) How do we determine the probability of rescue if persistence is possible in the absence of evolution? 3) How can we capture the time-varying effect of evolution on persistence? Through this, we gain a dynamic and nuanced view that goes beyond certain extinction and ultimate persistence and demonstrate how to quantify the time-varying effect of evolution on persistence from extinction times of ensembles of evolving and non-evolving populations.
DOI: 10.32942/x2tx1r
Authors: Matthew Osmond, Hildegard Uecker, Carla Alejandre, Ernesto Berríos-Caro, Dale Clement, Peter Czuppon, Léonard Dekens, Puneeth Deraje, Jeremy Draghi, Asad Hasan, Robert Holt, Teemu Kuosmanen, Alexander Longcamp, Loïc Marrec, Guillaume Martin, Christin Nyhoegen, Maria Orive, Vrinda Ravi Kumar, Remus Stana, Lindi Wahl, Masato Yamamichi
Institution: University of Münster
Language: English
Subfield: Genetics
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funders: National Science Foundation, University of Florida Foundation, Wellcome Trust, Francis Crick Institute, Comunidad de Madrid, Research Organization of Information and Systems, Cancer Research UK, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Medical Research Council, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan Science and Technology Agency, European Regional Development Fund, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology
Awards: Genetische Flaschenhälse, Populationsdynamik und Evolution von Antibiotikaresistenz, Evolutionary rescue, stochastic effects and interaction with environmental stress, ウイルス性肝炎とオーストラリア抗原の関連に関する研究, G1536405773, G1765770862, G1855990336, G2309174360, G2660406951, G2846510943, G291036901, G3467709854, G3518538256, G3700417266, G3735356012, BEE: Eco-evolutionary dynamics of disease-induced apex predator declines, Collaborative Research: SG: Clonality and the scope for adaptation in heterogeneous environments, G410571670, G430777504, G4421399207, G451917667, 多種生命システムの安定化と機能最適化を実現する融合科学の創生, G5421974903, G5539308778, G5967599077, G6076049654, G6790774701, G6883733209, G6956711515, 古代説話における諸寺縁起の研究, G7627252680, G832689143, Collaborative Research: SG: Clonality and the scope for adaptation in heterogeneous environments, Collaborative Research: IHBEM: The fear of here: Integrating place-based travel behavior and detection into novel infectious disease models, G99296377
OpenAlex ID: W7214674771