Future reef island habitability under climate change and the role of governance
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Reef island habitability is increasingly threatened by climate change through amplified risks to land, freshwater and food resources. While reef islands share common biophysical vulnerabilities, the capacity of their communities to effectively adapt to climate change is strongly influenced by governance arrangements, including through national institutions and external cooperative frameworks. This study identifies four broad governance types across Indo-Pacific reef island polities, based on sovereign status and island and territorial geography. These types vary in their autonomy, the degree and strength of cross-governance linkages, and local and external cooperation. Eight in-depth case studies representing the four types are analysed and demonstrate that no single governance type can ensure effective adaptation outcomes for land, water and food futures. Instead, the nuances of specific governance systems - often shaped by colonial legacies – shape their ability to mobilise awareness, resources, and authority to address climate risks. National climate change instruments alone also rarely translate into actionable adaptation plans due to limited baseline data and/or short-term priorities overshadowing long-term planning. The most effective adaptation is associated with robust institutions, strong cross-scale governance linkages, and the meaningful inclusion of local and traditional authorities in decision-making. Regional cooperation, particularly in the Pacific, has enhanced access to data, finance, and shared learning, while international partnerships support implementation. Ensuring the future habitability of reef islands requires a shift from project-based interventions to forward-looking governance that prioritizes equity, cooperation, and long-term institutional continuity, with adaptation efforts commensurate with the scale and urgency of climate change impacts.
Institutions: University of Exeter, Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes, University of Cambridge, Conservation International, University of Wollongong, Australian National University, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Universitaire de France, LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés, Cawthron Institute, Indian Institute for Human Settlements
Language: English
Subfield: Geography, Planning and Development
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,180
Awards: G1658132568, G3745980704
OpenAlex ID: W7214899606