Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: A simple model gives good agreement between observed emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels and observed increases of the atmospheric concentrations C of CO2 and decreases of the isotope delta value delta13C. If fossil fuel emissions were to cease the model predicts that: (1) the difference between the CO2 concentration C and the preindustrial value, Co = 280 ppm, would decay exponentially with time constant of 60 y; (2) the difference between the concentration-delta-value product C x delta13C and the preindustrial value Co x delta13Co = (280 ppm) x (-6.5%%), would decay exponentially with a time constant of 8 y. The decay times are different because of isotopic exchange, largely driven by photosynthesis and respiration on the land.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: van Wijngaarden, W. A., Happer, W.
Institutions: York University, Princeton University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7214959096