Work

From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear systems. We highlight some of the challenges and opportunities of transforming estimates of a dynamics-based early warning system, based on trends in stability or resilience into forecasts with high skill. We highlight the importance of (a) quantifying consequences of possible actions in response to warnings that may be false negatives or positives (b) considering finite time horizon predictions to give verifiable predictions (c) assumptions necessary for valid extrapolations of trends. We evaluate approaches to improving the skill and utility of the forecast.

Source: arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.01677

Authors: Plessis, Franco Du, Volodina, Victoria, Boulton, Chris A., Fadera, Muhammed, Kachhara, Sneha, Lenton, Timothy M., Ritchie, Paul D. L., Ashwin, Peter

Language: English

Topic: Ecosystem dynamics and resilience

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funders: European Commission, European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme

Awards: G1604232322, G6287184903, PAST TO FUTURE: TOWARDS FULLY PALEO-INFORMED FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, Climate Tipping Points: Uncertainty-aware quantification of Earth system tipping potential from observations and models and assessment of associated climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic impacts

OpenAlex ID: W7215955843

Cites: 6

Cited by:

Related to: 10