Work

Normalizing Flow Emulator for Gravitational Wave Detection Probability in the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA O4 Observing Run

Year: 2026

Type: preprint

Abstract: Efficient and accurate estimation of the detection probability of a gravitational wave event given its source parameters remains a challenging problem because it conventionally requires expensive Monte Carlo injection campaigns. We present a machine learning-based approach using Normalizing Flows (NFs) to estimate the detection probability of gravitational wave events for a LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA O4-like detector network configuration. We utilize the publicly available injection dataset as training and test data. We test our method and implementation by evaluating the raw NF performance as a generative model based on its ability to recover the correct parameter distributions of detected events. In addition, we compare the detection efficiencies predicted by the NF emulator with those from Monte Carlo importance sampling and find good agreement. Furthermore, estimating the detection efficiency for a wide variety of population models, including those with sharp features, can be more precise than estimates obtained via Monte Carlo importance sampling. We show that the NF emulator can be used in population analysis of gravitational wave sources, similar to previous neural network approaches. The training code and trained models from this work are publicly available.

Source: arXiv (Cornell University)

DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2610.00306

Authors: Gassert, Julius, Hernandez, Ignacio Magaña, Amsellem, Ariel J., Palmese, Antonella, Póczos, Barnabas

Institutions: Carnegie Mellon University, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Language: English

Topic: Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research

Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics

Field: Physics and Astronomy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funders: National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Research Foundation, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Academia Sinica, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea, National Science and Technology Council, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Award: Probing the Universe's expansion and gravitational wave sources with ground-based optical telescopes

OpenAlex ID: W7216156310

Cites: 11

Cited by: 1

Related to: 10