Work

Motivated Beliefs Under Delayed Uncertainty Resolution

Year: 2026

Type: report

Abstract: Experimental studies show that individuals update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when their ability is revealed immediately. This paper studies belief updating and the role of motivated memory when feedback is delayed but eventually disclosed. In a longitudinal experiment, participants receive noisy signals about their relative performance in a IQ-related task (Raven matrices) and learn their true rank four weeks later. Across subjects, belief updating is asymmetric: unfavorable signals are weighted less than favorable signals. Further, we identify motivated memory among participants who view the task as ego-relevant.

Source: CESifo

DOI: 10.65864/astf82dzcn

Authors: Charlotte Cordes, Jana Friedrichsen, Simeon Schudy