Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: The predictively oriented posterior offers principled uncertainty quantification, even under model misspecification. However, it does not admit an explicit density and therefore cannot be computed using classical Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. We remedy this by deriving an approximation to the predictively oriented posterior whose density can be evaluated point-wise, and whose approximation error decays rapidly. These results are illustrated on case studies from epidemiology, spatial statistics, and low-energy nuclear physics.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Institutions: University College London, Monash University
Language: English
Subfield: Statistics and Probability
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7216512046