Work

Conditional survival and dynamic prognostic nomogram for histologically defined anaplastic ganglioglioma: a SEER-based analysis

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Anaplastic ganglioglioma (AGG) is an extremely rare glioneuronal tumor with low incidence and heterogeneous survival patterns driven by a limited set of prognostic factors, and conditional survival has not been systematically evaluated in this entity. Patients histologically diagnosed with AGG between 2000 and 2022 were extracted from the SEER 17 registries. Age-adjusted incidence and annual percentage change (APC) were estimated by Joinpoint regression. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed with Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests; 5-year conditional survival (CS) was computed at successive landmark times. Independent prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression. A CS-nomogram was constructed and evaluated by calibration plots, time-dependent ROC and C-index. Nomogram-derived risk scores were dichotomized using a cut-point selected on the basis of restricted cubic splines (RCS), and survival between strata was compared. A total of 143 AGG patients were identified, with 62 deaths during follow-up. Patients included pediatric (29.4%), AYA (38.5%), and adults ≥ 40 years (32.2%), and 64.3% were male; most tumors arose in cerebral lobes (73.4%). Age-adjusted incidence of AGG remained low throughout the study window, with crude annual rates of approximately 0.082 per 1,000,000 person-years. Five-year OS was 64.7%, while CS5 increased from 64.7% at diagnosis to 73.7% at 1 year, 82.5% at 2 years, and > 90% after 3 years. Multivariate analysis identified age ≥ 40, regional/distant stage, and multiple primary tumors as independent adverse factors. The CS nomogram showed good performance, with time-dependent AUCs > 0.75 and well-calibrated predictions, and risk stratification yielded significantly separated survival outcomes ( P < 0.001). Long-term prognosis in AGG is highly dynamic: patients who survive the first three years acquire a substantially improved residual life expectancy. A CS-based nomogram, combined with RCS-guided risk stratification, translates this dynamic information into an individualized tool for counselling and risk-adapted surveillance.

Source: Scientific Reports

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-026-72417-x

Authors: Zhihao Yang, Jingjing Ni, Chuanjian Tu, Hui Qian

Institutions: Shaoxing University, Shaoxing People's Hospital

Language: English

Topic: Glioma Diagnosis and Treatment

Subfield: Oncology

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,690