Carbon dioxide removal enables climate planetary boundary compliance in cost-effective energy-industry transition pathways
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Several planetary boundaries have already been breached, including climate change. The 1.5°C climate target has been set and widely accepted as the main target. However, the safe and just climate planetary boundary has been identified at around 350 ppm atmospheric CO 2 concentration and ca. +1 W m -2 radiative forcing, which can be translated into a 1.0°C level. In this research, we show pathways for the energy-industry transition until 2100 to reach the safe and just climate planetary boundary by deploying fossil fuel phase-out and large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). We aim to quantify the energy and economic efforts required to rebalance Earth’s climate to 1.5°C and 1.0°C. We study several diverse CDR technology portfolios regarding their energy supply impact and expected financial burden. We find that raising ambitions to 1.0°C based on a highly electrified system with low-cost renewable electricity requires less than 5% additional primary energy compared to 1.5°C scenarios, including CDR portfolios heavily relying on direct air capture and carbon sequestration. The ratio of total annual system cost to gross domestic product (GDP) can be significantly reduced from 6% today to 1.5%, while raised ambitions to 1.0°C would require up to 0.25% of global GDP in addition.
Source: Research Square
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7220743598