A weakly modelled view of the joint compact-binary mass plane: population structure and spectral-siren cosmology
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: We introduce a flexible mixture model for the joint source-frame component-mass distribution of compact binaries, inferred simultaneously with cosmology, together with a framework that identifies structures in the reconstructed density, quantifying their posterior stability, local prominence, and cosmological relevance. Applied to GWTC-5.0, the workflow clarifies several familiar and emergent structures. The $\sim35~M_\odot$ feature is classified as a clear near-equal-mass peak despite an ambiguous interpretation in the primary-mass projection. A weaker unequal-mass concentration near $(21,12)~M_\odot$ is recovered frequently but with lower prominence. A tentative joint transition near $60~M_\odot$ appears at mildly unequal masses, with a more robust manifestation in the primary-mass projection. For cosmology, the two-dimensional mass model constraint on $H_0$ is $33\%$ narrower than a model that flexibly reconstructs only the primary mass, and only $\sim~10\%$ wider than analyses based on strongly parameterized one-dimensional spectral structure. At the feature level, we show that the $\sim10~M_\odot$ and $\sim35~M_\odot$ concentrations depend on $H_0$ mainly through a common scale which captures the entire $\sim~(1+z)$ cosmological rescaling of both masses; the intermediate unequal-mass feature instead retains residual dependence in the orthogonal mass-ratio direction. More generally, we argue that population prominence, formal inclusion in an astrophysical feature catalogue, and cosmological relevance need not coincide. These results suggest that a genuinely two-dimensional view may be required to fully exploit spectral-siren information. Our workflow provides a reproducible way to detect population structure and identify which aspects of its geometry are associated with spectral-siren constraints. The feature finder is directly applicable to other population reconstructions.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funders: National Science Foundation, Aix-Marseille Université, National Research Foundation, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Academia Sinica, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea, National Science and Technology Council, Science and Technology Facilities Council, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, H2020 European Research Council
Award: G1954085670
OpenAlex ID: W7220894734