Work

Enabling global prediction of marsh vegetation survival during extreme storms

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Flood protection by coastal vegetated systems depends on the persistence of vegetation structures, but it is currently impossible to predict vegetation survival during extreme storms. Using the largest artificially generated waves in the world, we here quantified the persistence of tidal marsh vegetation by measuring stem breakage of winter-state vegetation (3 species and mimics) during extreme storms with up to 2.0 m significant wave height, 4 m water level and 8 s peak period waves. Vegetation persistence was unexpectedly high, with on average only 30% biomass loss. Stiff stems which were unable to sway under waves were most frequently broken, so the storm left behind a more flexible and resilient post-storm canopy. We derived a generic diagram to predict biomass loss of global vegetation species across increasing storm intensities, allowing prediction of marsh vegetation survival under extreme storm events – a critical next step towards reducing the uncertainty hampering the implementation of nature-based flood protection strategies. Tidal marsh vegetation withstands extreme storms with only 30% average biomass loss, as flexible stems survive better than rigid ones, based on experiments using waves up to 2 m high and a predictive framework for vegetation survival.

Source: Communications Sustainability

DOI: 10.1038/s44458-026-00160-5