The furnace of crisis: assessing the European Union’s trajectory toward strategic independence and global actor in the shadow of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has removed the assumptions on which the post-Cold War European security order rested and has increased pressure on the European Union to act as a provider of hard security rather than primarily as a regulatory and geo-economic power. This article examines whether that pressure is producing meaningful strategic autonomy and a more consequential global role. It applies a neoclassical realist framework in which systemic pressure is filtered through European Union decision-making rules and through member-state intervening variables: threat perception, strategic culture, fiscal and electoral constraints, defence-industrial capacity, geographic exposure, and preferences concerning the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and the United States. The analysis rests on a structured qualitative content analysis of official European Union documents, member-state strategic materials, and specialist literature published from 2021 onward, combined with process tracing and a focused comparison of France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia. The findings indicate that the Strategic Compass, the European Peace Facility, defence-industrial instruments, enlargement policy, and the 2025 Strategic Approach to the Black Sea have widened the Union’s strategic repertoire, while divergent national preferences, capability shortfalls, unanimity requirements, dependence on United States enablers, and unresolved coordination with Türkiye continue to limit operational autonomy. The wider Black Sea region operates as the most demanding test of whether institutional innovation can be converted into deployable capacity. The article concludes that a stronger regional security role is probable in the medium term, whereas full strategic autonomy remains conditional rather than assured.
Source: Frontiers in Political Science
Author: Dorin Popescu
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,418
OpenAlex ID: W7221136501