Risk assessment and prediction of myopia among school-age children in South China: protocol for a longitudinal follow-up study
Year: 2026
Type: article
Study design: Study Protocol
Abstract: ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Myopia among children and adolescents has become an important public health concern. The pathogenesis of myopia remains unclear, and myopia may be associated with various ocular complications. Although myopia is preventable and controllable, established myopia is currently irreversible. Therefore, early and comprehensive strategies for myopia prevention and control are needed. This study aims to longitudinally assess fundus images, ocular biometric parameters, and environmental and behavioural factors in children and adolescents and to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based model for dynamically assessing the risk of myopia. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a school-based prospective longitudinal study that will be conducted in four administrative districts in Shenzhen, China, including two economically developed and two economically underdeveloped districts. One primary school will be randomly selected from each district, and all first-grade students in the selected schools will be recruited as study participants. The study will be conducted over the project period from April 2024 to November 2026, with follow-up assessments scheduled every 6 months after enrolment. During the follow-up period, participants will undergo fundus photography, ocular biometric measurements, myopia screening, including visual acuity and non-cycloplegic refraction, and questionnaire assessments of environmental and behavioural factors. AI technology will be used to interpret and quantify findings from bilateral fundus images. A DeepSurv model for predicting myopia risk will be developed using multimodal AI combined with ocular biometric parameters, environmental and behavioural factors, and other relevant indicators. The model will estimate the 1-, 2- and 2.5-year risks of developing myopia. The primary outcome of the study will be the incidence of myopia. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Shenzhen Eye Hospital (2024KYPJ023) in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Written informed consent will be obtained from the parents or legal guardians of all participants. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at academic conferences. Key findings relevant to myopia prevention and control will also be communicated to participating schools, parents and other relevant stakeholders through appropriate educational and public health communication channels, with the aim of supporting evidence-based strategies for myopia prevention and control. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ChiCTR2400082680.
Source: BMJ Open
Language: English
Subfield: Ophthalmology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,839
OpenAlex ID: W7221187425