Work

Impact of climate change on the photovoltaic power potential in Sweden across 21st century

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Solar photovoltaic generation strongly relies on weather conditions, which will be affected by future climate change. Traditional methods for estimating photovoltaic generation potential often overlook detailed installation factors and snow impacts, leading to inaccuracies in high-latitude areas. We assess future photovoltaic system performance in Sweden using a validated photovoltaic installation model that incorporates air temperature, radiation and snow conditions. Applying this model to four Swedish cities under low- and high-emission climate change scenarios and three climate simulations, we project an approximate 5% increase in photovoltaic generation relative to the historical period with optimal installation angle. The combined effects of air temperature and snowfall are as crucial as solar radiation for photovoltaic generation in Sweden, so the photovoltaic generation change will be relatively limited by 2100. Optimized tilt angles are obtained for all the four cities, which could increase photovoltaic generation by 3-6% compared to the commercial angle. The findings also provide valuable insights into photovoltaic potential in a changing climate.

Source: Communications Earth & Environment

DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-04091-w

Authors: Tianqi Ruan, Fuxing Wang, Björn Laumert, Aitor Aldama-Campino, Wujun Wang

Institutions: Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Language: English

Topic: Solar Radiation and Photovoltaics

Subfield: Artificial Intelligence

Field: Computer Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy, Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,490