Stockatomics: A Constraint Transmission Framework for Mapping Physical Supply Scarcity to Public Equity Exposure
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: A mineral can be essential to a growing industrial use and still leave almost no measurable trace in the listed companies associated with it. This paper sets out the Stockatomics Constraint Transmission Framework, a mineral-first specification for connecting downstream demand to the difficulty of expanding or replacing supply, to concentration at a stated production stage, and to the production exposure of listed issuers. The mineral is the stable unit. Sectors and products explain demand. Companies enter only through a compatible measure of current output. The specification separates four objects that thematic research usually collapses: structural supply responsiveness, a scenario-dependent demand outlook, concentration, and company participation in supply. Supply responsiveness is summarised by the Supply Elasticity Score (SES), an equal-weighted composite of lead time, capital intensity, processing bottlenecks, substitution difficulty and recycling difficulty. Despite the name, SES is not an econometric elasticity. Demand Momentum (DM) is a growth rate under stated sector shares. The Demand Pressure Score (DPS) is the normalised demand term used inside company scores. Mineral Exposure (MES), Supply Leverage (SLS) and the Critical Mineral Catalyst Score (CMCS) aggregate production shares against those mineral conditions. The aggregation identities are stated in full. Component rubrics and the fixed bounds that map raw sums onto 0–100 remain versioned implementation parameters. A constructed numerical case shows why two minerals with the same SES can imply different adjustment paths, and why a demand revision moves the indicators of a verified producer without creating production exposure for a developer or a cost exposure for a buyer. The paper specifies data requirements, known weaknesses in the current database, and a programme of validity, sensitivity and outcome tests. It does not estimate a production network, does not establish that demand exceeds supply, and does not claim that the scores predict equity returns.
Author: Malukas, Monte
Language: English
Subfield: Mechanical Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7221472706
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