Work

Resolving the mitigation-security-cost trilemma in the power sector through diversified CDR portfolios

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Carbon-negative power sectors are critical for achieving Paris Agreement goals. While current models predominantly emphasize bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), they often overlook comprehensive evaluations of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) portfolios. We develop a dynamic power system optimization framework incorporating endogenous BECCS, coal-biomass co-firing with CCS (CBECCS) along with direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and integration with computable general equilibrium and source-sink matching models. Through 147 scenario analyses (7 CDR configurations × 21 emission trajectories) in China, we quantify critical trade-offs among mitigation potential, energy security, and economic costs. Findings demonstrate that a tripartite CDR strategy (BECCS+CBECCS+DACCS) effectively resolves this trilemma, synergistically enhancing additional 0.1–2.2 Gt/a negative CO 2 emissions by 2060 while reducing electricity shortages by 29%–74% and unit abatement costs by 13%–64% relative to other CDR portfolios. This integrated framework informs carbon-negative power planning in China and can be adapted to other coal-intensive power systems.

Source: Cell Reports Sustainability

DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2026.100873