Work

Contrasting wave–surge dynamics under sea-level rise in the northern South China Sea

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Typhoon-induced coastal flooding along southeastern China is governed by complex interactions among storm surges, waves, tides, and coastal morphology, while the contribution and response of wave-induced setup to sea-level rise (SLR) remain uncertain. Here, a high-resolution SCHISM–WWMIII coupled model is applied to Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Yagi (2024) across the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and the Beibu Gulf, representing contrasting open-estuary and semi-enclosed coastal environments. Results reveal strong spatial variability in storm surge and wave-induced setup arising from wave propagation and coastal morphology. Mangkhut generated energetic waves in the PRE through its broad circulation, with wave-induced setup locally contributing over 20% at peak-surge time across wide areas near estuary entrance. In contrast, the sheltered Beibu Gulf was dominated by locally generated wind waves, resulting in weaker wave contributions despite extreme surges exceeding 3.7 m in Leizhou Bay. Under SLR, storm surge, wave height, and wave-induced setup exhibit heterogeneous responses rather than uniform amplification. Storm surge responses were generally weak and predominantly negative, whereas wave heights generally increased and wave-induced setup exhibited contrasting regional responses. Tide–SLR interactions may contribute to the pronounced superlinear response in the Beibu Gulf. These findings highlight the importance of resolving tide–wave–surge interactions for coastal hazard assessments.

Source: Ocean Engineering

DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.128687

Authors: Jie Yang, Mengting Jiang

Institution: Hohai University

Language: English

Topic: Coastal and Marine Dynamics

Subfield: Earth-Surface Processes

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,150