Work

Artificial general intelligence and public diplomacy: A scenario analysis of possible futures

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Does the potential advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) render traditional public diplomacy obsolete? While scholars have extensively documented the integration of narrow AI into diplomatic practice, we still lack a structural understanding of how AGI might redefine the very mechanics of international persuasion. Public diplomacy serves as a critical testing ground here, sitting at the volatile intersection of legitimacy, persuasion, and algorithmic mediation. In this study, I offer three primary interventions. First, I conceptualize Computational Narrative Power (CNP) as an actor's capacity to optimize persuasive narratives at scale, relying on production volume, targeting precision, adaptive responsiveness, and attributional opacity. Second, I map four plausible AGI futures based on the interplay between technological diffusion and global governance architectures: Soft Hegemony, Collective Smart Diplomacy, Narrative Cold War, and Digital Anarchy. Rather than predictive prophecies, I treat these scenarios as analytical stress tests demonstrating that governance structures dictate international stability just as much as technological breakthroughs. Finally, I identify an inherent transparency-efficiency trade-off in automated statecraft, arguing that AGI compels us to shift our analytical gaze from mere message dissemination to the governance of underlying epistemic infrastructures. • Introduces Computational Narrative Power (CNP) in AGI-driven public diplomacy. • Explores four AGI futures using Schwartz's 2x2 scenario planning matrix. • Analyzes AGI capability distribution and international governance models. • Highlights the critical role of anticipatory governance for systemic stability.

Source: Social Sciences & Humanities Open

DOI: 10.1016/j.ssaho.2026.103419

Author: Mahdi Mahdavi Athar

Institutions: Islamic Azad University, Arak, Arak University of Technology

Language: English

Topic: International Relations and Foreign Policy

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,180