Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: We discuss the measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) in flat $Λ$ cold dark matter cosmology based on the blind hierarchical analysis of 11 multiply-imaged quasars (hereafter the TDCOSMO-2026 sample) and described in greater detail in a companion paper. In addition to the time delays, we use lens models based on high-resolution imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), analyzed jointly with axisymmetric dynamical models based on JWST-NIRSpec, VLT-MUSE, and Keck-KCWI spectroscopy. Our primary result $H_0=71.1^{+2.4}_{-2.3}$ km.s$^{-1}$.Mpc$^{-1}$ is based on the TDCOSMO-2026 sample, in combination with $Ω_{\rm m}$ constraints from the DES-Dovekie supernova (SN) dataset. Our 3% precision accounts for the mass-sheet degeneracy. Importantly, our measurement is independent of the local distance ladder (LDL). Among individual late-universe probes, only the traditional LDL is more precise. We discuss our result in the context of the Hubble tension, the difference between $H_0$ measured in the late universe and the prediction based on early-universe probes such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We construct combinations of independent late-universe probes and show that the tension with the Planck CMB prediction is robust to excluding any one of the methods based on Type-Ia Supernovae, Cepheids, or the Tip of the Red Giant Branch. For example, we construct a 'no-SN' $H_0$ measurement, by replacing the DES-Dovekie constraint on $Ω_{\rm m}$ with that from DESI baryon acoustic oscillations, and then combining TDCOSMO-2026 with independent non-SN late-universe probes. This 'no-SN' late-universe probe is in 3.7$σ$ tension with Planck. Even after completely excluding the LDL, the tension with Planck persists at the 2.7$σ$ level.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: TDCOSMO Collaboration, Birrer, Simon, Cappellari, Michele, Courbin, Frédéric, Fassnacht, Christopher D., Fleury, Pierre, Frieman, Joshua A., Galan, Aymeric, Huang, Xiang-Yu, Johnson, Daniel P., Khanolkar, Sanjana, Knabel, Shawn, Krizic, Hrvoje, Millon, Martin, Morishita, Takahiro, Motta, Veronica, Mozumdar, Pritom, Paic, Eric, Paugnat, Hadrien, Schweinfurth, Allan G., Shajib, Anowar J., Sheu, William, Sluse, Dominique, Stiavelli, Massimo, Suyu, Sherry H., Treu, Tommaso, Urcelay, Felipe, Williams, Devon M., Wong, Kenneth C.
Institutions: Stony Brook University, University of Oxford, University of California, Davis, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Montpellier, Laboratoire Univers et Particules de Montpellier, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, University of Geneva, University of California, Los Angeles, Tohoku University, University of Valparaíso, Research Center for the Early Universe, The University of Tokyo, Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics, Technical University of Munich, University of Liège, Space Telescope Science Institute
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo, Office of Science, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Nuclear Physics
OpenAlex ID: W7221819759