LAB #4081 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.5% to 37.6% (+5.0pp, n=596) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance TIGHT filter (≤2°) would have excluded trades whose entry phase was misaligned with the dominant cycle. Over the listed live window, the most likely candidates for exclusion are the two wkjudas entries (GBPUSD LONG at 1.35301 and USDJPY SHORT at 160.187) and possibly the NZDUSD SHORT at 0.59214, given their timing near cycle boundaries. Removing those three losses would have flipped the window from roughly 2W/8L to 2W/5L, a win-rate jump from ~20% to ~28.6% — but the sample is tiny and the two remaining wins (EURUSD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT) may have been phase-aligned anyway, so the real PnL delta is modest, likely +0.5R to +1.0R, not transformative. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +5.0pp win-rate gain on n=596 suggests a real but fragile edge, likely concentrated Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7221833273
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: