Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: It is folklore that passing "convergence" diagnostics does not guarantee that a Markov chain has converged. We prove this as an impossibility for any finite checklist of diagnostics. Running more chains, longer chains, and smarter diagnostics does not avoid this impossibility in certifying convergence. Under regularity assumptions, we determine how the worst-case undetected non-convergence decays as more diagnostics are added, and how to choose diagnostics optimally. Folklore suggests that the sampler's slowest mixing modes are the "dangerous" ones that must be monitored; we prove that the slow modes yield nearly optimal diagnostics as sampling proceeds. Given a source class, we also give an anytime-valid bound on the remaining discrepancy and show how undetected bias caps the effective sample size that a finite checklist can certify.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Smola, Daniel Matsui
Institution: University of Washington
Language: English
Subfield: Statistics and Probability
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7221857288