Work

Spatial Differentiation of Population Aging in a Rapidly Aging Latin American Region: Evidence from the Maule Region, Chile, 1992–2024

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Population aging is a defining demographic transformation in Latin America, yet its subnational spatial dynamics remain insufficiently understood. We examined population aging in the Maule Region of Chile from 1992 to 2024 using official census data at provincial and commune levels. The Aging Index (AI) was complemented by absolute age-group counts, logarithmic component decomposition, intercensal growth rates, dispersion measures, β-convergence, Global Moran’s I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association, sex-specific AI, dependency ratios, and oldest-old shares. By 2024, the regional AI reached 83.9, exceeding the national value of 79.0. Regional intercensal AI growth increased across successive periods, whereas provincial and commune trajectories were heterogeneous. Growth of the population aged ≥65 years accounted for 83.6% of the regional logarithmic increase in AI between 1992 and 2024, while contraction of the population aged <15 years accounted for 16.4%. Global spatial autocorrelation varied non-monotonically, with no significant temporal change; Hualañé and Licantén were FDR-significant High–High clusters in 2024. Absolute territorial dispersion widened, relative inequality was non-monotonic, and β-convergence was not statistically significant. Aging was consistently higher among women, and the oldest-old represented more than one-quarter of older adults in the most aged territories. These findings show that rapid regional aging can coexist with marked local heterogeneity and persistent spatial differentiation.

Source: Urban Science

DOI: 10.3390/urbansci10100590