Work

Distinct pathways organize poleward-transported Arctic cyclones

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Poleward-transported (PT) cyclones account for a substantial part of winter Arctic cyclone activity, but their routes into the Arctic have rarely been examined as a distinct aspect of cyclone variability. Using objectively identified winter cyclone tracks for 1979–2025, we find that PT cyclones preferentially follow four recurrent pathways rather than entering the Arctic randomly. The North Atlantic–Barents/Kara pathway is the most common, accounting for about 43% of PT cyclones, while North Atlantic–Fram cyclones are also frequent and relatively intense but tend to remain closer to the Arctic margin. Baffin Bay–West Greenland cyclones are less common but reach comparatively high latitudes. These pathway differences are accompanied by distinct large-scale circulation patterns before Arctic entry. The relative importance of the pathways has also changed over time. Between 1980–2002 and 2003–2025, the North Atlantic–Barents/Kara contribution decreased by about 9.4 percentage points, while the Pacific and North Atlantic–Fram pathways increased. These results show that changes in Arctic cyclone activity involve not only the number of poleward-moving systems, but also the routes by which they enter and travel through the Arctic.

Source: Environmental Research Letters

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aeb4c9

Authors: Di Chen, Minghu Ding, Xinyan Lyu, Tao Zuo, Qizhen Sun

Institutions: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, University of Pennsylvania, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center

Language: English

Topic: Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,045