LAB #4104 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.5% ( — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 32.6% to 33.5% (+0.9pp, n=1464) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have blocked the two wkjudas losses (GBPUSD LONG 1.35301, USDJPY SHORT 160.187) and the rizzy5m XAUUSD loss, but also the rizzy5m GBPUSD WIN (1.34886) and the rizzy7m AUDUSD open. Net effect on the 10-trade window: 2 wins and 2 losses removed, leaving 1 win and 2 losses among remaining closed trades — win rate would drop from 33% (2/6 closed) to 33% (1/3 closed), essentially flat. PnL delta is ambiguous because the removed GBPUSD win likely offsets the removed losses, but the open AUDUSD short would have been skipped, avoiding potential drawdown. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +0.9pp win-rate gain on n=1464 suggests a real but marginal edge, likely concentrated in specific currency pairs or session times. Risk: the filter may overfit to a Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7222193932
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