LAB #4087 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.5% to 39.3% (+6.8pp, n=145) — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF LONG — improves win rate from 32.5% to 39.3% (+6.8pp, n=145) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a USDCHF LONG-only filter would have had zero direct effect on the current live trade window — none of the ten listed trades are USDCHF LONG. The filter would not have blocked or altered any of the losing GBPUSD, USDJPY, or NZDUSD shorts, nor the winning GBPUSD SHORT or EURUSD LONG. Therefore, the realized PnL over this window would be unchanged. The claimed +6.8pp win-rate improvement is derived from a separate backtest sample (n=145) and does not translate to this live set. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a USDCHF LONG-only filter could plausibly reduce exposure to a historically weak long-side setup, but the effect is highly instrument-specific and may simply shift losses to other pairs or timeframes. The risk is overfitting to a narrow sample (n=145) — a 6.8pp gain could easily be noise, espec Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7222199025
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