Work

Food prices, inflation expectations, and consumer sentiment

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Food prices are among the most visible indicators of inflation, playing an important role in shaping how Americans perceive the economy. This study examines the relationship between food prices, inflation expectations, and consumer sentiment. Using monthly data from 1982 to 2024, we show that food‐away‐from‐home prices trigger sharper but short‐lived responses in inflation expectations, while food‐at‐home prices have more persistent effects. Inflation expectations in the 0–2 percent range are linked to higher consumer sentiment, suggesting that stable food prices can help anchor confidence. The findings underscore the importance of disaggregating the food price components of inflation for understanding how consumers form expectations and how those expectations shape confidence.

Source: Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association

DOI: 10.1002/jaa2.70054

Authors: Rundong Peng, David L. Ortega

Institution: Michigan State University

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Zero hunger

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,500