Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: We develop an age- and immunity-structured COVID-19 model with setting-specific contacts, calibrated to Ontario incidence and hospital admissions before Omicron. We simulate counterfactual vaccination strategies and contact restrictions in schools, workplaces, and other community settings, evaluating projected severe-case demand against an illustrative healthcare-capacity bench-mark. Vaccination combined with workplace and community contact restrictions keeps simulated demand within capacity. In contrast, relaxing restrictions in either setting produces large surges and repeated capacity threats, even when school restrictions remain. School-only changes produce smaller effects on severe disease. These findings highlight the value of vaccination and settingspecific contact restrictions that prioritize workplace and community settings for pathogens with adult-concentrated severe outcomes.
Source: medRxiv
Institutions: York University, California State University, Northridge
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7222671524