Work

Changing predictive asymmetry: network agenda correspondence between state media and the user on China's fertility policy (2013–2025)

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Introduction: Over the past decade, China's fertility policy has shifted from restrictive population control toward pronatalist support, creating an important case for examining the adaptation of government communication in a platformized media environment. Methods: and 196,218 associated user comments on Weibo between 2013 and 2025. The LDA model was used to identify four topic-derived policy attributes. Event-based cross-lagged correlations evaluated directional associations against the Rozelle-Campbell baseline, while topic joint-intensity networks and event-level QAP correlations assessed aggregate structural correspondence. Analyses were conducted across three periods: the selective two-child reform period, the universal two-child policy period, and the three-child and pronatalist-support period. Results: . In the first two periods, media-preceding-only patterns were descriptively more frequent than user-preceding-only patterns. In the third period, user-preceding-only patterns became more frequent. Gender analysis revealed gender- and period-specific differences in users' relative attention to the four policy attributes. Discussion: The relationship between the state-media and user agendas was heterogeneous rather than consistently media-led or user-led. Aggregate thematic similarity could coexist with weaker event-level structural correspondence. The findings are consistent with a potentially more reciprocal communication environment in the later policy period. It also indicates that fertility-policy communication should recognize gender-differentiated issue attention within the user agenda.

Source: Frontiers in Public Health

DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1943400

Authors: Wen Deng, Zijun Mao, Yi Yang

Institutions: Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Guangdong University Of Finances and Economics

Language: English

Topic: News Media Framing and Political Communication

Subfield: Communication

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,801

Funders: Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities