LAB #4159 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.4% (+5.8pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 32.6% to 38.4% (+5.8pp, n=831) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum 6-confirmation filter would have suppressed the two most recent rizzy5m entries (GBPUSD SHORT at 1.34898 and NZDUSD SHORT at 0.58252) if they were opened with fewer than 6 confirmations — but the ledger shows only one of those is currently open, and the other was a WIN. The filter would also have blocked the AUDUSD SHORT via rizzy7m (loss) and possibly the XAUUSD SHORT (loss) if their confirmation counts were below threshold. Net effect on this tiny sample: you'd have removed at least 2 losses and 1 win, likely improving the window's win rate from ~30% toward ~40%, but the sample is too small to attribute the +5.8pp backtest gain to this window alone. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a 6-confirmation minimum should reduce noise entries and improve precision, but it will also cu Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Author: Caldin, Andrew Stewart
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7222819970
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