Climate Change Impact on Local Water Need and Winter Suitability of Landscape Plants in Türkiye: 2050 and 2090 Projections with KURAS
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Landscape plants remain in place for decades, so a plant chosen today must also suit the climate of the future. The calculation engine of KURAS, a decision support system that evaluates the local water need and winter suitability of landscape plants, was re-run without modification for 699 plants and the 81 province centres of Türkiye under the climates of 2050 (2041–2060) and 2090 (2081–2100). The future climate was derived with the monthly delta-change method from 15 CMIP6 models (WorldClim 2.1) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. In 2041–2060 under SSP2-4.5, May–September reference evapotranspiration increased by 4.6–8.6% at the province centres, winter minimum temperatures rose by 1.1–2.6 °C, and the USDA hardiness zone shifted in 39 provinces. The increase in the water deficit was 4 mm for "very low" water users and 53 mm for "very high" water users. Among plant–province pairs, the local water class rose in 13.0% and winter suitability improved in 8.2%; no pair became less suitable in winter. In 12 provinces (e.g. Sinop, Karabük, Zonguldak, Düzce) the water class rose for at least half of the plants in every period and scenario. The absolute increase in the deficit was largest in Central Anatolia and the gain in winter suitability was largest in the highlands of Eastern Anatolia; plants reported as high water users, led by cool-season turfgrasses, stood out in the number of provinces in which their local water class rose. The change grows towards the end of the century: in 2081–2100 under SSP5-8.5, evapotranspiration increases by 20.9% and winter minima by 4.3 °C, the USDA zone shifts in all provinces, and the water class rises in 44.4% of pairs. Taken together, the easing of the cold constraint and the growing summer water deficit suggest that water need and xeriscape principles may become more important in plant selection under the future climate. English edition. This is the English translation of the Turkish preprint "İklim Değişikliğinin Türkiye'de Peyzaj Bitkilerinin Yerel Su İhtiyacı ve Kış Uyumuna Etkisi: KURAS ile 2050 ve 2090 Projeksiyonları" (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23276431). Same content and data; one count is corrected (provinces with a USDA hardiness zone shift in 2041–2060 under SSP5-8.5: 57 → 59, using exact zone boundaries). The supplementary data (province-level climate changes and summary results) are published with the Turkish original. Method paper (English edition): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23436245 · KURAS: https://kurakcilanaliz.com
Authors: Gilik, Enes, Yılmaz, Miray
Institution: Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7222832893