Work

Cry wolf effect in flood early warning

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: To maximize the potential of advanced flood early warning technologies, it is crucial to understand how effectively flood early warning systems (FEWS) induce preparedness actions from local government, enterprises, and the general public. Repeated false alarms can undermine the credibility of FEWS, making it difficult for stakeholders to take preparedness actions. Although quantifying this “cry wolf effect” is important to design effective FEWS (e.g., setting appropriate warning thresholds), few studies have explored its existence in the context of flood early warning. Can weather agencies become “The boy who cried wolf”? To answer this question, we developed a new dataset which allows for the analysis of the relationship between flood economic losses and weather warning outcomes in Japan from 2002 to 2022. Our multiple regression analysis reveals a statistically significant association of false alarms with flood economic loss: municipalities experiencing higher false alarm ratios over the past 6 to 24 months suffer greater economic damage from floods, holding all other factors constant. This study serves as an initial step toward a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship between prediction accuracy, warning criteria, public trust in authorities, and preparedness actions against flooding.

Source: Progress in Disaster Science

DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100762

Authors: Yohei Sawada, Ryota Yagi, Takuya Kawabata, Hitomu Kotani

Institutions: The University of Tokyo, Japan Meteorological Agency, Meteorological Research Institute, Institute of Science Tokyo

Language: English

Topic: Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,120

Funders: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Moonshot Research and Development Program