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Threats to the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets: A case of reversal risks in the climate-smart agroforestry carbon trading project in Northern Uganda

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Reversal risks affect the environmental integrity of voluntary carbon markets and gains accruing from them, but their understanding, especially in agroforestry, is still limited. This study explored reversal risks in the climate-smart agroforestry carbon trading project in Northern Uganda. Using data collected from beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the project, descriptive and inferential statistics were generated. The results show that reversal of carbon storage in agroforestry is driven by wildfire, diseases and pests, including termites and stray livestock, as well as climate hazards such as droughts and windstorms. Wildfires, as well as pests and diseases, were more prevalent among beneficiaries than non-beneficiaries of the project. In contrast, climate hazards were less prevalent among beneficiaries than non- beneficiaries of the project. This confirms the key role climate-smart agroforestry plays in climate change adaptation. The study has practical, policy, and research implications. Practically, there is a need for a comprehensive capacity building on the sustainable management and control of pests and diseases. Concerning policy, the effectiveness of climate-smart agroforestry in enhancing smallholder resilience to climate hazards points to the need for development agencies and governments to integrate climate-smart agroforestry into their extension systems. Similarly, there is a need for policy, ordinance, bylaws, and stringent enforcement on wildfire and stray livestock to mitigate the reversal of carbon storage arising from them. The research implication of the study is the analysis of human-induced reversal risks and time preference for trees, as they were not captured in this study.

Source: Nature-Based Solutions

DOI: 10.1016/j.nbsj.2026.100385

Authors: Vincent Canwat, Daniel Mukisa

Institution: Gulu University

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Policy and Economics

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land, Zero hunger, Responsible consumption and production

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,910