Analysis of risk factors for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients with acute herpetic neuralgia and construction of a predictive nomogram model
Year: 2026
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Objectives To explore the risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients with acute herpetic neuralgia (AHN) and to construct a VTE prediction model based on clinical indicators to help clinicians better identify high-risk patients and develop prevention and treatment strategies. Materials and methods This study retrospectively included 327 patients diagnosed with AHN who were hospitalized in the Pain Department of Hengshui People's Hospital between December 2020 and December 2023, of whom 26 developed VTE during hospitalization. The basic clinical data of the patients were collected, and the independent risk factors for VTE were screened by LASSO regression and multifactorial Logistic regression analysis, and the VTE prediction model was constructed. Model performance was evaluated by ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curves, and internal validation was performed using ten-fold cross-validation and bootstrap resampling. Results The incidence of VTE in AHN patients was 7.95%. LASSO regression screened for 10 relevant variables, and final multifactor logistic regression analysis identified FIB (fibrinogen), FDP (fibrin degradation products), NRS (Numerical Rating Scale) score, and thrombotic risk score as independent predictors. Among them, FIB was a protective factor for VTE (OR = 0.477, P = 0.006), while FDP (OR = 1.48, P < 0.001), NRS score (OR = 1.584, P = 0.039), and thrombotic risk score (OR = 2.05, P < 0.001) were risk factors. The AUC of the prediction model was 0.853 (95% CI: 0.764–0.941), and the bootstrap optimism-corrected C-index was 0.834. At the optimal cutoff, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.731 and 0.877, respectively, with good calibration and clinical applicability. Conclusions In this study, a VTE prediction model was constructed for patients with AHN. The model can accurately predict the risk of VTE in patients with AHN and provide a reference for clinical prevention and intervention; however, external validation in larger, multicenter cohorts is warranted before clinical implementation.
Source: Frontiers in Neurology
Language: English
Subfield: Internal Medicine
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
OpenAlex ID: W7223048927