Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Expected shortfall is defined as the truncated mean of a random variable that falls below a specified quantile level and is widely recognized as an important risk measure. Motivated by the empirical observation of clustering patterns in financial risks, we consider a joint autoregressive model for both conditional quantile and expected shortfall. Existing estimation methods for such models typically rely on minimizing a nonlinear and nonconvex joint loss function, which is challenging to solve. We introduce a two-step regression framework to estimate the model parameters with theoretical guarantees. We further develop a Portmanteau test for model diagnostics and prove its asymptotic validity for Type I error control. Our empirical results on stock market data indicate that the proposed models effectively capture the clustering patterns and leverage effects on the conditional expected shortfall.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Cai, Peiyao, Tan, Kean Ming, He, Xuming
Institution: University of Michigan
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7223062747