Use of a forecast SROI analysis to evaluate a health bus intervention to help people at risk of substance use harms in Northeast England
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction: A local authority public health team in the Northeast of England worked in partnership with a group of primary care practices and a lived experience recovery organisation to deliver a Health Bus intervention to address unmet health needs of the alcohol and substance-using population. The economic evaluation of community-based interventions can be difficult to measure as there is a very broad range of impacts which goes beyond the healthcare sector. In this study, we provide an example of how Social Return on Investment (SROI) analysis enabled us to estimate the monetary value of selected outcomes through healthcare costs potentially averted. Methods: We used the forecast SROI approach. A logic model was developed by consulting local stakeholders including NGOs, charity providers and people with lived experiences. The primary outcome of interest was the referrals made through the Health Bus for the most common conditions among the target population. The time horizon was 1 year, and the perspective of the analysis was the NHS system and programme beneficiaries. The SROI was calculated based on the cost averted because of the early referrals. Additional sensitivity and scenario analysis were conducted around the parameters such as deadweight and attribution rates, productivity gain, population coverage and opportunity costs. Findings: Under the base-case with 164 participants, the estimated SROI ratio was 1.10:1, equivalent to an estimated £1.10 of social value per £1 invested. In the 4% population-coverage scenario, the estimated SROI ratio increased to 2.02:1. Results were most sensitive to changes in deadweight and attribution as well as referral rates. Relying on secondary data sources was challenging as we couldn't obtain the parameters that we needed for broader analysis, and we made certain assumptions by relying on literature. Conclusion: The findings indicate that estimated SROI ratio was highly sensitive to population coverage and attribution assumptions. The reliance on secondary data sources and assumptions, limited the analytical scope focused only on unmet health needs. Future studies can focus on broadening the analysis to incorporate non-health outcomes by primary data collection and tailored surveys in a longer implementation period, which then allows for projections beyond the pilot duration.
Source: Frontiers in Public Health
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
Award: G2695184213
OpenAlex ID: W7223070423