Age-period-cohort analysis, attributable risk factors, and trend prediction of maternal and neonatal disease burden in China and G20 countries from 1990 to 2023
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Objectives: Maternal and neonatal disorders remain leading causes of death and disability, this study analyzes its trends, risks, and projects future burdens. Methods: We collected the age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability from the GBD database between 1990 and 2023. Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percentage changes. Age-period-cohort models decomposed independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Autoregressive integrated moving average models projected trends. Results: From 1990 to 2023, age-standardized mortality rates in China declining, outpacing the G20 average. However, age-standardized years lived with disability rates rose persistently in both China (0.97%) and the G20 (1.45%). Age-period-cohort analysis identified the highest incidence in women aged 25-29 years, and in newborns<5 years old; although attributable mortality fell by 97.5% in China, attributable years lived with disability decreased by only 18.3%. The fitted model projects an increase in China's age-standardized incidence rates (1065.11 per 100,000), whereas G20 is expected to decline. Conclusions: Despite remarkable mortality reductions, the persistent rise in disability-driven largely by survival of high-risk neonates and environmental risks-signals an urgent need for integrated health system strategies, and build rehabilitation planning capacity.
Source: Preventive Medicine Reports
Authors: Pengfei Qi, Fan Zhang
Institution: Shangqiu Medical College
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,610
OpenAlex ID: W7223085364