Attribution of the most impactful heatwaves, cyclones and floods hitting Africa in the period 2019-2024 to climate change
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Extreme weather events are intensifying under climate change, with Africa among the most exposed and vulnerable regions. We analyze 33 of the most impactful heatwaves, floods, and cyclones that occurred between 2019 and 2024 using the analogue-based ClimaMeter approach. For each event, the method compares the temperature, precipitation and wind associated with circulation analogues of the event in an earlier (1950–1985) and a more recent (1987–2022) period of the ERA5 reanalysis, providing a circulation-conditioned estimate of how comparable weather situations have changed. The event list was built through an impact-based protocol combining AI-assisted retrieval, cross-verification with documentary sources, and expert validation by the author team. Nine of the ten heatwaves occurred in conditions about +0.6 to +1.6 °C warmer than comparable past situations. For rainfall, the picture is mixed: seven of the thirteen floods and five of the ten cyclones show precipitation increases of up to about +12 mm/day, whereas the others show decreases or no robust change. Six cyclones show stronger winds, by about +1 to +4 km/h. For most events, the analogues of the two periods sample different phases of ENSO, AMO or PDO, so that natural variability may contribute to the detected changes, especially for rainfall and wind. Compared with independent attribution studies available for seven events, our results agree for the Sahel heatwave and for two rainfall events, and differ or are not robust for the other four. Relative damages increase with hazard magnitude for floods but are otherwise only weakly related to either the hazard magnitude or the detected change, and the sample does not allow the roles of exposure and vulnerability to be quantified. These results add observation-based evidence on recent African extremes, robust for heat and more uncertain for rainfall, and support the need for strengthened early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and targeted adaptation strategies.
Source: Weather and Climate Extremes
Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, École Polytechnique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives, Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, Université Paris-Saclay, CEA Paris-Saclay - Etablissement de Saclay, École Normale Supérieure - PSL, Sorbonne Université, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA Paris-Saclay, London Mathematical Laboratory, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), University of Cape Town, University of Hassan II Casablanca, San Jose State University, Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, NORCE Research AS
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,969
OpenAlex ID: W7223119776