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Biomass electricity as a circular-bioeconomy flexibility service under net-load stress: Daily evidence from Colombia

Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Biomass-based electricity can provide dispatchable, renewable flexibility that complements variable renewables and hydro resources, linking grid reliability with the circular bioeconomy through the valorization of biological residues and by-products. This study assesses whether biomass generation behaves as an operational flexibility service in a hydro-dominated power system using daily data for Colombia from 2017 to 2025. The stress of the system was operationalized system stress as net load pressure daily system demand minus hydropower, wind, and solar generation—capturing the residual need for dispatchable supply. We estimate generalized additive models that flexibly control for long-run changes, cyclic annual seasonality, and day-of-week patterns. The generalized additive model was estimated with a first-order autoregressive AR(1) correction, which accounts for serial dependence between consecutive daily residuals. Results show a robust positive association between biomass generation and system stress, consistent with biomass scaling up when hydro and variable renewables are less able to meet demand. Spot price effects are statistically significant but secondary once operational stress and temporal structure are considered. An exploratory stress–season interaction surface suggests that biomass responsiveness varies across the year, indicating seasonal regimes in which bio-based flexibility becomes more valuable. The findings position biomass electricity as a cleaner, circular-bioeconomy flexibility resource that can support resilience in hydro-dependent grids facing renewable variability and seasonal constraints.
DOI: 10.1016/j.clcb.2026.100248
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,270
OpenAlex ID: W7223126897
FWCI:
Cites: 27
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Related to: 10