Amazon carbon emissions driven by human actions amplified by droughts
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The Amazon carbon sink is weakening as deforestation 1–5 , rising tree mortality 6–8 and climate change disrupt the climatic conditions that sustain a humid tropical forest 9–11 . Forest loss reduces precipitation, increases temperatures and lengthens the dry season, driving higher carbon emissions 1–4,11,12 . Climate stress is stronger in more deforested regions, rendering forests progressively more flammable 1,9,13 . Large-scale climate events, such as El Niño, further amplify regional climate impacts 9,14–17 . Here we present an analysis of 15 years of Amazonian carbon fluxes derived from atmospheric CO 2 measurements. We determine a carbon balance of 0.32 ± 0.08 PgC yr −1 , with fires acting as the dominant source (0.40 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 ) and forest uptake becoming increasingly unable to offset emissions. Furthermore, we investigate key drivers of the carbon emissions of Amazonia and identify three distinct year groups. Group 1 (2011–2014, 2017 and 2018) represents the role of the Amazon in the global carbon balance (0.11 ± 0.08 PgC yr −1 ) during wetter years with low human activity, such as deforestation, biomass burning and degradation. Group 2 (2019–2022) represents Amazon carbon emissions (0.43 ± 0.13 PgC yr −1 ) from human activities (mainly deforestation and degradation) during years with low climatic stress. Group 3 (2010, 2015, 2016, 2023 and 2024) has the highest carbon emissions (0.49 ± 0.07 PgC yr −1 ) and comprises warm and dry years (high climate stress), such as El Niño and the warming of the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, associated with biomass burning.
Source: Nature
Authors: Luciana V. Gatti, Camilla L. Cunha, Juan C. G. Blas, A. Scott Denning, Mariane S. Reis, Luciano Marani, Egidio Arai, Cassiano Gustavo Messias, Dhemerson E. Conciani, John B. Miller, Vanúcia Schumacher, Kleber P. Naccarato, Jose Marengo, Ane A. C. Alencar, Luciana Soler, Claudio Almeida, Lucas Gatti Domingues, Caio S. C. Correia, Raiane A. L. Neves, Carlos Nobre, Sergio M. Corrêa, Elliott Campbell, Jennifer E. Johnson, Joseph A. Berry, Alber H. Sanchez, Francine M. da Silva, Vagner L. Camilotti, Christiane Silvestrini, Filipe Loyola Lopes, Xin Lan, Gabrielle Pétron, Marcio Malacarne, Guilherme B. M. Machado
Institutions: Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Yale University, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais, Universidade de São Paulo, Instituto de Estudos Avançados da Universidade de São Paulo, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, University of California, Santa Cruz, University of Kansas, Carnegie Institution for Science
Language: English
Topic: Fire effects on ecosystems
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $12,690
OpenAlex ID: W7223130783