Associations between stand structure and the predictability of multiple forest carbon pools in the transition zone between the Qinghai–Tibet and Loess Plateaus
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction Complex mountain forests in the transition zone between the Qinghai–Tibet and Loess Plateaus are characterized by strong topographic heterogeneity and marked stand structural variation. These conditions may lead to differences in the predictability of forest carbon pools. However, the role of stand structure in shaping the predictability of multiple forest carbon pools remains insufficiently understood. Methods In this study, we used field survey data from 90 plots (77 forest plots and 13 shrubland plots) collected in 2024-2025 in the Taohe National Nature Reserve, Gansu Province, together with vegetation indices, topographic, climatic, soil, and stand structural variables, to develop random forest models for multiple forest carbon pools. For plot-scale modelling, 77 forest plots were used, and soil carbon was assessed at 0–60 cm depth. We assessed the composition, predictability, and major predictors of biomass, soil, litter, deadwood, and ecosystem carbon densities. Results The mean ecosystem carbon density was 306.79 Mg C ha -1 , with soil carbon and biomass carbon accounting for 71.5% and 24.9%, respectively, suggesting that these two pools comprised the dominant carbon pools. Plot-scale random forest models showed clear differences in predictive performance among carbon pools. Biomass and ecosystem carbon densities were predicted with relatively high accuracy, with cross-validated R2 values of 0.766 and 0.659, respectively. Litter carbon density showed moderate predictability, whereas soil and deadwood carbon densities were poorly predicted. Biomass carbon density was primarily associated with stand volume proxy, tree height, and basal area proxy, whereas ecosystem carbon density was mainly associated with tree height, stand volume proxy, and stand age. Spatial random forest models showed relatively poor predictive performance. Discussion These differences in predictive performance indicate that stand structural variables were closely associated with the predictability of biomass and ecosystem carbon densities. Overall, carbon density predictability in complex mountain forests showed clear component dependence. Component-specific modelling of multiple forest carbon pools helps reveal differences in their key predictors, predictive performance, and uncertainties associated with spatial extrapolation, and may provide useful information for forest carbon monitoring, spatial pattern characterization, and carbon management zoning in the Taohe Reserve.
Source: Frontiers in Plant Science
Authors: Wenzhen Zong, Zengcao Ren, Lei Ling, Zhengni Chen
Institution: State Forestry and Grassland Administration
Language: English
Subfield: Nature and Landscape Conservation
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
OpenAlex ID: W7223151034