Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Coral reefs of the ROPME Sea Area (RSA) extend from the Arabian (Persian) Gulf through the Gulf of Oman to the western Arabian Sea, spanning the coastal and offshore waters of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. With an area of 632 km2, these coral reefs represent 0.35% of the photic coral reef area assessed globally in the Red List of Ecosystems. Six ecoregions were defined using the Marine Ecoregions of the World framework, with boundaries refined to reflect regional environmental and ecological variation. These ecosystems range from marginal coral veneers adapted to extreme temperatures and salinity to structurally complex framework-building reefs. Environmental conditions range from the shallow, hypersaline Arabian (Persian) Gulf to the monsoon-driven upwelling systems of the Western Arabian Sea. Marine heatwaves are an increasing threat, while pressures from coastal development, dredging, land reclamation, and fishing vary among ecoregions. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems assessment evaluated reef condition between 1975 and 2025 using historical and contemporary monitoring data, observed Degree Heating Weeks records from 1985-2025 and climate projections for 2026-2075. All six ecoregions were classified as Critically Endangered overall. This classification integrates historical declines, present condition and geographic distribution under Criteria A, B, C1 and D with projected environmental degradation under subcriterion C2. Across Criteria A, B, C1 and D, three ecoregions were Critically Endangered, two Endangered and one Vulnerable. Subcriterion C2 returned a Critically Endangered result for five ecoregions, elevating the overall classification of three. Western Arabian Sea – North was Not Evaluated under C2 and was classified as Critically Endangered overall because of its restricted distribution under subcriterion B1. As the first region-wide assessment of coral reef collapse risk in the region, this study shows that even highly heat-tolerant coral communities face a high risk of collapse under continued global warming, reinforcing the need for climate action, effective local management and sustained regional monitoring.
DOI: 10.32942/x25t26
Authors: Rita Last Name Bento, Amal Al-Gargawi, Jenan Al Asfoor, Suaad Al Harthi, Reem AlMealla, Rawan Alkhudhair, Ivonne Bejarano, Sudhanshu Dixit, Amir Ghazilou, Antoine Leduc, Elayne Looker, Nithyanandan Manickam, Daniel Mateos-Molina, Pedro Range, Mohammad Shokri, Goutham Sambath, Oli Taylor, Mishal Gudka, Franz Smith, John Burt
Institutions: New York University Abu Dhabi, Kuwait University, American University of Sharjah, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science, Sultan Qaboos University, Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, Qatar University, Shahid Beheshti University, The University of Melbourne, Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean, International Union for Conservation of Nature
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life below water
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7223185776