Mangrove structural correlates of predicted suitability for the understory shrub Acanthus ilicifolius in coastal forests of southeastern China
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Acanthus ilicifolius L., a typical mangrove-associated shrub, is an important component of coastal wetland communities. It commonly occurs in mangrove understories, forest edges, estuarine margins, and tidal-channel habitats. Under the combined influence of biotic and abiotic factors, however, the spatial distribution patterns of A. ilicifolius and their relationships with mangrove ecosystems remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we modeled the relative habitat suitability of A. ilicifolius along the southeastern coast of China using ensemble species distribution models implemented in biomod2, with presence data from 35 occupied 1 km grid cells. Climatic, topographic, coastal, marine thermal, and mangrove structural variables were integrated to evaluate the environmental controls on habitat suitability. The models showed high internal discriminatory performance under repeated random five-fold cross-validation. High predicted relative suitability was mainly concentrated along the southern coast, while the corresponding classified area was sensitive to the selected suitability threshold. Variable importance and response analyses showed that wet-season temperature was the dominant predictor, followed by elevation and cold-season precipitation. Mangrove structural variables had substantially lower relative importance, particularly maximum canopy height and basal-area-weighted height. Nevertheless, incorporating these structural variables still affected model predictions in some areas. High-suitability areas within mapped mangrove areas were associated with lower mangrove aboveground biomass, lower basal-area weighted height, and lower maximum canopy height. Overall, these findings show that the predicted suitability of A. ilicifolius is primarily associated with broad climatic and coastal-position gradients, while its association with mangrove structural context supports a novel, field-testable hypothesis that this species may serve as a candidate indicator of open-canopy, low-biomass, or early-stage restoration contexts, providing useful information for coastal wetland restoration assessment and adaptive management.
Source: Ecological Indicators
Authors: Lina Cui, Minmin Cao, Jiali Jiang, Jiang Jiang
Institution: Nanjing Forestry University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,650
OpenAlex ID: W7223218755