Postmaterial emancipative values emerge over time rather than solely through generational succession
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Value change is often attributed to generational replacement. Modernization theory has popularized the idea that as younger generations expand in the population, their postmaterial emancipative values come to dominate, while more conservative values fade away with older generations. Yet this cohort-centered view discounts that contemporaneous period effects can shift the values of all cohorts simultaneously. Using data on postmaterial emancipative values from the Integrated Values Survey (1981–2022), covering 122,205 respondents in 13 countries, we conduct a bounding age–period–cohort analysis. The analysis leverages modernization theory's own assumption that age effects on emancipative values are not positive. Under this constraint, period effects are positive in seven countries and exceed cohort effects in four throughout the admissible age-effect range. In the remaining nine countries, cohort effects exceed period effects under zero or sufficiently weak negative age effects. Assuming more negative age effects mechanically strengthens period effects while weakening cohort effects. These results challenge cohort replacement as a sufficient general account of long-term value modernization, showing that the relative importance of period and cohort effects depends on the country and assumptions about aging.
Source: Social Science Research
Authors: Martin Schröder, Gordey Yastrebov
Institutions: Saarland University, University of Cologne
Language: English
Subfield: Social Psychology
Field: Psychology
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,020
OpenAlex ID: W7223232886