Migraine Burden Among Women of Childbearing Age in China: Trends, Drivers, and Projections to 2045
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Background: Migraine is a major cause of disability among women of childbearing age (WCBA), yet its long-term epidemiological burden in China remains incompletely characterized. This study systematically assessed temporal trends, age-specific patterns, underlying drivers, and future changes in migraine burden among Chinese WCBA. Methods: Migraine prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2023 were obtained from GBD 2023. Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and Joinpoint regression with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Das Gupta decomposition quantified demographic and epidemiological contributions, and Nordpred projected the burden through 2045. Results: From 1990 to 2023, prevalent migraine cases increased from 60,863,309 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 47,869,630-76,489,399) to 64,615,712 (95% UI: 50,835,902-79,970,949), and DALYs increased from 2,194,079 (95% UI: 1,407,590-3,107,661) to 2,353,368 (95% UI: 1,478,811-3,349,364), whereas incident cases decreased from 4,796,065 (95% UI: 3,119,766-6,910,062) to 4,663,573 (95% UI: 3,068,485-6,728,084). Given the relatively wide 95% UIs surrounding GBD estimates, these modest changes in absolute burden should be interpreted cautiously. Age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and DALY rates increased, with EAPCs of 0.25 (95% CI: 0.21-0.29), 0.20 (95% CI: 0.17-0.24), and 0.27 (95% CI: 0.23-0.31), respectively. Joinpoint regression yielded corresponding AAPCs of 0.20, 0.16, and 0.22. The highest absolute burden occurred among women aged 35-39 years. Epidemiological change was the largest positive contributor to increases in prevalence and DALYs, whereas demographic factors offset the positive epidemiological contribution to incidence. By 2045, prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs were projected to decline, while their corresponding ASRs were projected to increase. Conclusion: Migraine remains a substantial health burden among Chinese WCBA. The divergence between declining future absolute burden and increasing ASRs suggests that demographic factors may mask unfavorable epidemiological trends, highlighting the need for targeted prevention and long-term management in this population.
DOI: 10.2147/ijwh.s648809
Authors: Yingzhao Wang, Wenyu Li
Language: English
Subfield: Clinical Neurology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,836
OpenAlex ID: W7223556635