Humid-heat shifts conceptions and increases pregnancy termination risks in Nigeria
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Climate change is increasing the occurrence of dangerous heat events globally with immediate health consequences, particularly in the Global South. In this paper, we spatially integrate Demographic and Healt 9 h surveys with a high-resolution, blended remotely sensed and station-derived dataset of humid-heat events spanning 1983–2016 to examine the effect of humid-heat exposure on fertility in Nigeria, one of the largest and most climate-vulnerable countries in the world. We use discrete-time models to examine the relationship between humid-heat exposure and conception probability and linear probability models to examine the relationship between humid-heat exposure and pregnancy termination (spontaneous and induced). We find that a 1 ° C increase in the current maximum wet bulb globe temperature decreases conceptions (0.2 conceptions per 1,000 woman-months, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.4), but exposure to hotter temperatures 1 to 2 mo prior increases conception probability. Exposure to hot-humid temperatures during pregnancy increases probability of pregnancy termination (1.73 terminations per 100 pregnancies, 95% CI: 0.7 to 2.7). The net effect is an increase in births, but the timing may be shifted. Subgroup analyses reveal that effects of humid-heat on conception were larger for women residing in rural areas or in northern districts, or who are Muslim or have lower educational attainment, while the association between humid-heat and pregnancy termination was larger for women in southern areas, older women, and Christian women. Differences in how humid-heat affects populations may exacerbate existing inequalities. Overall, our analysis contributes to a better understanding of how humid-heat exposure affects fertility and reproductive health among women in the Global South.
Language: English
Subfield: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7223694127